HVAC industry and marketing statistics (2026)

This page collects 95 HVAC statistics, each linked to the government dataset, industry release, survey or study it comes from, with its year and sample. Vendor figures, such as Angi cost guides, ServiceTitan and Housecall Pro platform data and IBISWorld estimates, are labelled as vendor data.

Market size, businesses and employment

AHRI publishes monthly equipment shipments, and BLS projects HVACR jobs. Census counts HVAC contractors with plumbers under NAICS 238220, so those rows include plumbing firms; see our plumbing statistics for that side.

• $159.4 billionis IBISWorld's estimate of US heating and air-conditioning contractor revenue in 2026.IBISWorld, Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US2026
• 120,000businesses operate in the US heating and air-conditioning contractor industry, per IBISWorld.IBISWorld, Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US2026
• 7,749,529central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps shipped in the US in 2025, down 20.0% from 9,681,770 in 2024.AHRI, December 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 4,104,933central air conditioners shipped in 2025, a 26.2% drop from 2024.AHRI, December 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 3,644,596air-source heat pumps shipped in 2025, down 11.6% from 2024.AHRI, December 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 3,247,426gas furnaces shipped in 2025, up 4.1% from 2024.AHRI, December 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 47%of 2025 central AC and heat pump shipments were heat pumps (calculated from AHRI totals).AHRI, December 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 6,390,257central ACs and heat pumps shipped January through August 2026, up 6.2% from the same period of 2025.AHRI, August 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 440,900HVACR mechanic and installer jobs existed in the US in 2025.BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook: HVACR Mechanics and Installers2025
• 11%projected job growth for HVACR mechanics and installers from 2025 to 2035, which BLS calls much faster than average.BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook: HVACR Mechanics and Installers2025 to 2035
• 40,600HVACR job openings are projected each year, on average, over the decade.BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook: HVACR Mechanics and Installers2025 to 2035
• 68%of HVACR mechanics and installers work for plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors.BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook: HVACR Mechanics and Installers2025
• 111,207plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractor establishments (NAICS 238220) had 1,214,761 employees and $89.5 billion in annual payroll.US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 (national file)2023
• 58%of plumbing, heating and AC contractor establishments (64,871) have fewer than 5 employees.US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 (national file)2023
• $306.3 billionin receipts were earned by 107,004 plumbing, heating and AC contractor firms in 2022.US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses 2022 (6-digit NAICS)2022
• 215firms with 500 or more employees earned 21.9% of plumbing, heating and AC contractor receipts, and 90% of firms had fewer than 20 employees.US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses 2022 (6-digit NAICS)2022

Wages and the labor shortage

BLS publishes HVACR technician pay by state, metro and industry. Contractor surveys show how hard skilled labor is to find.

• $61,010was the median annual wage for HVACR mechanics and installers in May 2025, or $29.33 an hour.BLS, OEWS Profile 49-90212025
• $64,780was the mean annual wage for HVACR mechanics and installers in May 2025.BLS, OEWS Profile 49-90212025
• $95,210is what the top 10% of HVACR techs earned, while the bottom 10% earned under $40,050.BLS, OEWS Profile 49-90212025
• 409,670HVACR mechanics and installers held wage and salary jobs in May 2025 (OEWS excludes the self-employed).BLS, OEWS Profile 49-90212025
• $84,920mean annual wage made the District of Columbia the top-paying area, followed by Alaska ($80,150), Washington ($78,860), Massachusetts ($77,760) and New Jersey ($77,580).BLS, OEWS Profile 49-9021 (annual mean wage)2025
• $91,280mean annual wage made San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara the top-paying metro for HVACR techs.BLS, OEWS Profile 49-9021 (annual mean wage)2025
• 39,160HVACR techs work in Florida, the most of any state, ahead of California (35,130) and Texas (34,730).BLS, OEWS Profile 49-90212025
• 21,820HVACR techs work in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro, the largest metro employer.BLS, OEWS Profile 49-90212025
• $71,190median pay in wholesale trade beat the $60,030 median at plumbing, heating and AC contractors.BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook: HVACR Mechanics and Installers2025
• 39.9years was the median age of employed HVACR mechanics and installers in 2025.BLS, CPS Table 11b: Employed persons by detailed occupation and age2025
• 36%of employed HVACR workers (200,000 of 561,000) were 45 or older in 2025.BLS, CPS Table 11b: Employed persons by detailed occupation and age2025
• 2.7%of HVACR mechanics and installers were women in 2025, and 26.7% were Hispanic or Latino.BLS, CPS Table 11: Employed persons by detailed occupation, sex, race and ethnicity2025
• 53%of residential contractors name the skilled labor shortage as a top business risk, and 60% name labor and overhead costs (ServiceTitan survey, 1,000+ contractors).ServiceTitan, Labor Is a Top Priority for Contractors in 20262026
• 251,000construction job openings were unfilled at the end of August 2026 (all construction trades, from ABC's analysis of BLS JOLTS).Associated Builders and Contractors, Construction Layoffs Fall to All-Time Low in August2026

What homeowners spend on heating and cooling

Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies tracks remodeling spending, and IRS data shows who claimed the 25C credit. Angi cost guides and ServiceTitan and Housecall Pro platform data are labelled as vendor data.

• $519 billionin home improvement and repair spending is projected through mid-2027, with annual growth slowing to 0.5%.Harvard JCHS, LIRA: Remodeling Spending Poised for Further Slowdown2026
• $75.0 billionwent to replacing systems and equipment (HVAC, plumbing, electrical and appliances), 18.5% of $405 billion in homeowner improvement spending.Harvard JCHS, Homeowner Improvement Expenditures by Project Type (Improving America's Housing 2025)2023
• $4,814is the national average cost of a new furnace installation, based on 11,869 verified Angi projects (vendor cost guide).Angi, How Much Does a New Furnace Cost in 2026?2026
• $5,978is the average AC replacement cost, with a range of $1,400 to $12,500 (Angi vendor cost guide).Angi, How Much Does AC Replacement Cost?2026
• $6,087is the average heat pump cost, and most homeowners spend $4,236 to $7,942 (Angi vendor cost guide).Angi, Heat Pump Costs and Installation Costs2026
• $350is the average HVAC repair cost, with most jobs between $130 and $2,000 (Angi vendor cost guide).Angi, How Much Do HVAC Repairs Cost?2026
• 88%of HVAC jobs on Housecall Pro in Q1 2026 were repairs (vendor platform data).Housecall Pro, 2026 State of Home Services Spending2026
• 79%of homeowners plan a repair or replacement in 2026, and 62% are more likely to go ahead when financing is offered (Housecall Pro survey, n=1,100+, Feb 2026).Housecall Pro, 2026 State of Home Services Spending2026
• 41%of homeowners say they put off a repair that later cost more (Housecall Pro survey, n=1,100+).Housecall Pro, 2026 State of Home Services Spending2026
• 17.7 yearsis the median age when furnaces get replaced, vs 15.3 years for air conditioners and 13.3 years for heat pumps (ServiceTitan platform data).ServiceTitan, Equipment Lifespan Benchmarks2026
• 10.1 yearsis the median AC replacement age in Florida, compared with 20.7 years in Michigan (ServiceTitan platform data).ServiceTitan, Equipment Lifespan Benchmarks2026
• $1,245was the median commercial HVAC invoice in February to April 2026, up 1.5% from $1,229 two years earlier (ServiceTitan platform data).ServiceTitan, Commercial HVAC Held Pricing Steady Through the Refrigerant Transition2026
• 47%of US homes heated mainly with natural gas in 2024, and 42% heated mainly with electricity.EIA, Electricity Use Is Becoming More Common for Residential Heating2024
• 2,338,430tax returns claimed the 25C energy efficient home improvement credit for tax year 2023, totaling $2.06 billion (IRS counts through May 2024).IRS SOI, Table 1: Form 5695 Residential Energy Credits, Tax Year 20232023
• $8,276average cost of central AC was reported on 488,050 returns claiming 25C, and heat pumps averaged $11,213 across 267,780 returns.IRS SOI, Table 1: Form 5695 Residential Energy Credits, Tax Year 20232023
• $2,000a year was the 25C cap for qualified heat pumps, which only covered property placed in service before December 31, 2025.IRS, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit2023 to 2025
• 88%of US households used air conditioning, and two-thirds used central AC or a central heat pump.EIA, Nearly 90% of U.S. Households Used Air Conditioning2020
• 52%of household energy use goes to space heating and air conditioning, and 13% of homes use a heat pump as the main heater.EIA, Use of Energy Explained: Energy Use in Homes2020

Seasonality

AHRI's monthly shipments show how strongly cooling demand peaks in early summer.

• 1,023,571central ACs and heat pumps shipped in June 2026, up 21.7% from June 2025.AHRI, June 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 2.3xas many central ACs and heat pumps shipped in June 2026 as in January 2026 (1,023,571 vs 440,819).AHRI, January 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 916,830central ACs and heat pumps shipped in July 2026, up 20.1% from July 2025.AHRI, July 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 756,739central ACs and heat pumps shipped in August 2026, up 11.4%, and heat pumps were 44.7% of the total.AHRI, August 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 837,098central ACs and heat pumps shipped in April 2026, up 5.1%, as the spring ramp began.AHRI, April 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 2.1xas many central ACs and heat pumps shipped in June 2025 (840,769) as in December 2025 (408,244).AHRI, December 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 49.4%was the year-over-year drop in October 2025 central AC and heat pump shipments (412,873 vs 815,360 in October 2024).AHRI, October 2025 Statistical Release2025
• 287,710gas furnaces shipped in August 2026, down 4.3% from August 2025.AHRI, August 2026 Statistical Release2026
• 72%of homeowners would pay more to get an emergency fixed within 24 hours (Housecall Pro survey, n=1,100+).Housecall Pro, 2026 State of Home Services Spending2026
• 58%of homeowners say a sudden problem is what most often makes them call a pro (Housecall Pro survey, n=1,100+).Housecall Pro, 2026 State of Home Services Spending2026
• 19%of home electricity use goes to air conditioning, the largest single end use.EIA, Electricity Use in Homes2020

How homeowners find and choose an HVAC contractor

Reviews, Google Maps and now AI tools shape which contractor gets the call. Our local SEO statistics and online review statistics cover the consumer research in more depth, and our guide to getting more Google reviews covers the work.

• 97%of consumers read online reviews for local businesses, and 41% always do, up from 29% (BrightLocal LCRS, n=1,002 US adults).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 45%of consumers used ChatGPT or other AI tools for local business recommendations, up from 6% a year earlier (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 71%of consumers use Google for reviews, down from 83% in 2025 (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 47%of consumers won't use a business with fewer than 20 reviews (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 74%of consumers only care about reviews from the last three months (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 31%of consumers will only use a business rated 4.5 stars or higher, up from 17% a year earlier (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 89%of consumers expect owners to respond to reviews, and 80% are likely to use a business that responds to all of them (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 54%of consumers visit a business's website after reading positive reviews (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 27%of consumers have spent over $1,000 on a purchase after reading reviews (BrightLocal, n=1,002).BrightLocal, Local Consumer Review Survey 20262026
• 73%of consumers started their latest local business search on a phone, and 75% used more than one channel (BrightLocal, n=1,227).BrightLocal, Google Is #1 for Local Search, but Three-Quarters Use More Than One Channel2026
• 75%of consumers pick a local business in under 30 minutes, and 72% consider three or fewer options (BrightLocal, n=1,227).BrightLocal, You Have Less Than 30 Minutes to Win a Customer2026
• 29.4%was the AI mention rate for service-area businesses like HVAC contractors, vs 33.6% for storefronts (BrightLocal study of about 200,000 AI searches).BrightLocal, What 200k Local AI Searches Tell Us2026
• 66%of searches showed a tracked business in Google Maps, compared with 32% to 38% on ChatGPT and Google's AI surfaces (BrightLocal, about 200,000 searches).BrightLocal, What 200k Local AI Searches Tell Us2026
• 28.5%of all AI citations for local searches came from Google Business Profiles (BrightLocal, 1.97 million citations).BrightLocal, What 200k Local AI Searches Tell Us2026
• 68%of homeowners get more quotes when a price comes in higher than expected (Housecall Pro survey, n=1,100+).Housecall Pro, 2026 State of Home Services Spending2026

Rank.ai data: what AI recommends for local trades

We have not yet measured HVAC contractors. The closest trade evidence is our local AI index of plumbers in 5 US cities, a trade Census counts alongside HVAC: 60 answers (4 engines, 3 prompts, 5 cities) with 460 picks and 226 distinct businesses, verified against Google Maps via DataForSEO. The city results are on our plumbing statistics page, and the wider picture is in our AI search statistics.

• 1 in 18plumbers picked by ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Perplexity had no matching Google Maps listing: 25 of 460 picks.loc.ai local AI index, October 20262026
• 12%of the AI picks were in the Google Maps top 10 for the same city.loc.ai local AI index, October 20262026
• 16 of 50plumbers in the Maps top 10 across the 5 cities were named by any AI engine.loc.ai local AI index, October 20262026
• 151 of 226plumbers were named by one engine only, and 13 were named by all four.loc.ai local AI index, October 20262026
• 4.76 to 4.83stars was the average Google rating of each engine's picks.loc.ai local AI index, October 20262026
• 713 to 1,097was the median Google review count of each engine's picks, lowest for ChatGPT and highest for Claude.loc.ai local AI index, October 20262026

Marketing spend and lead costs

HVAC search ads cost more per lead than most industries. See our Google Ads statistics for cross-industry benchmarks and our roofing statistics for another high-cost trade.

• $90.92is the average search ad cost per lead for Home & Home Improvement, above the $66.69 all-industry average (LocaliQ/WordStream 2026 benchmarks).LocaliQ, Search Advertising Benchmarks for Every Industry2026
• $8.33is the average search cost per click for Home & Home Improvement, vs $5.42 across all industries (LocaliQ 2026).LocaliQ, Search Advertising Benchmarks for Every Industry2026
• $127.74is the average search ad cost per lead for AC installation and repair (LocaliQ, 3,200+ home services campaigns, April 2024 to March 2025).LocaliQ, 2025 Search Ad Benchmarks for Home Services2025
• $129.02is the average search ad cost per lead for heating and furnace advertisers (LocaliQ, 3,200+ campaigns).LocaliQ, 2025 Search Ad Benchmarks for Home Services2025
• $9.68is the average cost per click for AC installation and repair search ads, and heating and furnaces average $9.30 (LocaliQ).LocaliQ, 2025 Search Ad Benchmarks for Home Services2025
• 7.48%is the average conversion rate for heating and furnace search ads, and AC installation and repair converts at 6.56% (LocaliQ).LocaliQ, 2025 Search Ad Benchmarks for Home Services2025
• 6.43%is the average click-through rate for AC installation and repair search ads (LocaliQ).LocaliQ, 2025 Search Ad Benchmarks for Home Services2025
• $7.85is the average cost per click across all home services search ads in 2025 (LocaliQ).LocaliQ, 2025 Search Ad Benchmarks for Home Services2025
• 35%was the median call booking rate for trades contractors in the South in Q2 2026, vs 28% in the Northeast; top-quartile shops booked 76% to 82% (ServiceTitan platform data, all trades).ServiceTitan, State of the Trades Quarterly Insights2026
• 6%of annual revenue is what HVACR contractors spend on average on marketing and advertising (ACCA and Farmington study, 1,000+ contractors).ACCA, Inside the Contractor of the Future Study2025
• 9%net profit is reported by contractors investing at least 12% of revenue in marketing, compared with 5% for the rest (ACCA study).ACCA, Inside the Contractor of the Future Study2025
• 10%higher close rates come from presenting four or more options, and the premium equipment share rises from 26% to 42% (ACCA study).ACCA, Inside the Contractor of the Future Study2025
• 35%of sales are financed by contractors who offer financing on every job, vs 17% for those who offer it selectively (ACCA study).ACCA, Inside the Contractor of the Future Study2025
• 7%average net profit is reported by contractors using flat-rate pricing on service calls, vs 4% with other methods (ACCA study).ACCA, Inside the Contractor of the Future Study2025
• 56%of HVACR contractors use field service management software (ACCA study).ACCA, Inside the Contractor of the Future Study2025

What this means for HVAC contractors

• Plan staffing and ad budgets around the cooling peak. Shipments roughly double from winter to June.
• Collect recent reviews after every job. Most consumers only read reviews from the last three months and skip businesses with fewer than 20.
• Build a page for each service and town you cover. Our guides to location pages and ranking in nearby cities show how.
• Offer options and financing. ACCA found contractors who present four or more options close 10% more often.
• Check what AI says about you. In our plumber index, only 12% of AI picks were in the Maps top 10. The free AI grade shows whether ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini name your business.

Sources and method

We opened the pages ranking for "HVAC statistics" and "HVAC industry statistics", including ServiceTitan's HVAC statistics, and kept only figures we could trace to a primary source. We then added government data (Census County Business Patterns and SUSB, BLS OOH, OEWS and CPS, EIA, IRS), AHRI shipment releases, Harvard JCHS, ACCA, and surveys and platform data with their sample stated: BrightLocal (1,002 and 1,227 US adults), Housecall Pro (1,100+ homeowners), ServiceTitan (1,000+ contractors) and LocaliQ (3,211 campaigns). The plumber AI data comes from the loc.ai local AI index, October 2026. Vendor cost guides are labelled. Every figure and link was checked on 2026-10-16.